The macro backdrop is risk-off heading into Monday's London open. PCE inflation printed 4.1% YoY in May (highest since April 2023), reinforcing Fed hawkishness while Q1 GDP consumer spending was revised sharply lower to 0.5% — a stagflationary combination. The Iran-Hormuz situation remains unresolved and actively destabilizing: a cargo ship was bombed, transit volumes are running at roughly half pre-war levels (~60-70 vs. 138 vessels/day), and internal Iranian command confusion adds tail-risk to energy supply chains. Equities are under pressure (S&P/Nasdaq futures pointing lower, European markets red), DXY has softened to 100.0 but dollar weakness appears corrective rather than structural given yield support at 4.37%.
Key risks today: Escalation in Hormuz, continued equity contagion into crypto, and persistent ETF outflow momentum. No major economic data releases scheduled today.