The dollar is firm (DXY 101.60, near 52-week highs) as markets price in ~2 Fed hikes by early 2027, sustaining a risk-off undertone that pressures crypto. Equities face headwinds after yesterday's S&P -1.44% / Nasdaq -2.21% tech-led sell-off, with AI/chip valuation concerns replacing geopolitical fear as the primary driver; Nasdaq futures point to a partial recovery but conviction is low. The US-Iran ceasefire deal remains structurally unstable — competing narratives on Strait tolls, nuclear inspectors, and unfrozen asset usage keep tail-risk elevated, while the Senate's historic WPR rebuke of Trump adds domestic political noise that markets cannot fully price. Key risk today: 08:30 ET Core PCE (fcst 0.3%, prev 0.2%) and Final GDP (fcst 1.6%) — a hot PCE print reinforces Fed hawkishness and hits crypto directly; an in-line or soft print could provide modest relief.
Overall sentiment: Cautiously bearish with institutional support undertow.