Monday 12 October 2026 07:00 UTC
Geopolitical risk is elevated across multiple fronts: US-Ukraine tensions have resurfaced over attacks on Russian refineries, a potential "energy ceasefire" is in play, and Iran war risk narratives are circulating. Despite this noise, risk assets are holding up — SPX +0.59%, VIX at 14.8 (calm), and macro regime reads RISK_ON. The key scheduled risk event today is Fed speaker Hammack at 16:50 UTC; the week's primary macro catalyst is Wednesday's US CPI print (Sep, f'cast 3.7% y/y headline / 2.5% core), which will set the tone for rate expectations and crypto positioning into the weekend.