Thursday 01 October 2026 07:00 UTC
Risk appetite is cautious at the October open: SPX is marginally red (-0.25%), gold is bid (+0.62%), and the 10Y yield holds at 5.29%, maintaining pressure on risk assets. The DXY is firmer at 101.66 (+0.21%), a mild headwind for crypto. Two high-impact catalysts dominate today's calendar — ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC, fcst 55.0 vs 54.6) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, fcst 200K vs 197K) — with tomorrow's NFP (fcst 90K vs prior 162K) already casting a shadow; a miss of that magnitude would be the dominant macro event for the week and should be sized accordingly today. Geopolitical noise (Iran-US back-channel, European hybrid war posture) remains a background bid for gold and a latent volatility source for crypto.