Monday 28 September 2026 07:00 UTC
Geopolitical risk is the dominant early-week driver: Trump has declined to rule out further Iran strikes, pulling BTC and Nasdaq futures lower in overnight trade and keeping risk appetite cautious despite a headline VIX of 14.9. The EU is separately weighing NATO-style responses to Russian hybrid attacks, adding a secondary geopolitical overhang. US10Y at 5.18% remains a structural headwind for long-duration risk assets; this week's data heavy-load (JOLTS tomorrow, Core PCE + GDP final Thursday, ISM Manufacturing Friday, NFP Friday) means macro uncertainty stays elevated through the week — position sizing should reflect event risk on every session.