Friday 25 September 2026 07:00 UTC
Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal to the US has pushed oil lower this morning, reducing one inflationary tailwind but doing little to resolve the broader geopolitical uncertainty; the UK simultaneously signalling a harder line on Iranian hostile activity adds a secondary risk layer. US 10-year yields at 5.16% and hawkish Fed signalling remain the dominant headwind for risk assets — this is not a macro environment that sponsors levered crypto longs. Today's key scheduled risk event is US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug) at 12:30 UTC (forecast -0.4% vs prior +1.1%); a surprise beat would likely spike yields further and pressure crypto into the afternoon session.