The macro backdrop has turned incrementally hostile for risk assets overnight. U.S. PPI data has strengthened Fed rate hike expectations, pushing BTC lower and boosting oil prices — a stagflationary signal. Geopolitical risk is escalating sharply: Iran-linked Houthis have seized a Saudi island and forced a pipeline shutdown, with the U.S. publicly linking Chinese satellite intelligence to an Iranian strike; Saudi Arabia is assessed as having limited defensive options. This combination of tighter monetary policy expectations (US10Y at 4.97%) and active Middle East conflict creates a near-term headwind for risk assets, though the broader macro readout (VIX 15.8 — CALM, SPX +0.86%) suggests equity markets are not yet pricing a crisis premium.