The dominant risk-off catalyst today is the US CPI print at 08:30 ET, with headline CPI forecast at +0.4% m/m / 3.4% y/y and Core at +0.2% m/m / 2.4% y/y — a hot print risks accelerating Fed rate hike bets already priced in after yesterday's PPI surprise, placing immediate pressure on risk assets. Geopolitical tensions are compounding the macro overhang: US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is driving oil prices higher, adding to stagflation fears and supporting gold (+0.63%) over equities (SPX -0.58%). DXY is holding near 99.05 (relatively contained), but the US10Y at 4.94% signals continued rate pressure — the environment is unfavorable for leveraged risk assets until CPI resolves.