Geopolitical risk is elevated with Iran tensions dominating headlines, driving a classic risk-off rotation: Brent crude topping $100/bbl, US10Y at 4.84%, Gold +1.08%, and equities under pressure (SPX -0.48%). The combination of sticky Fed rate hike expectations and a geopolitical premium on energy is creating a dual headwind — higher real yields compress risk assets while oil spikes stoke inflation fears, reducing the probability of near-term Fed cuts. Key risk today: PPI data at 08:30 ET (headline 0.4% f/c, core 0.3% f/c); a hot print will amplify rate-hike bets and accelerate crypto selling pressure. A soft print is the primary upside catalyst for the session.