The risk-off tone is dominant this morning: BTC has broken below $78K on a confluence of hawkish Fed signals (Warsh's Jackson Hole speech reinforcing inflation-hawk credibility), renewed US-Iran military exchanges, and spillover from a 3% gold selloff on rate-hike fears. The 10Y yield has pushed to 4.72%, compressing risk appetite across assets. September Fed rate hike probability sits at ~58% (per CoinDesk) — elevated but not yet at panic levels — suggesting volatility rather than a straight-line selloff. The Cronos chain halt following a $75M exploit on Tectonic adds idiosyncratic DeFi contagion risk to an already fragile session.
Key risks today: Hawkish Fed repricing continuation; Iran escalation headlines; crypto-specific contagion from Cronos exploit spreading to sentiment broadly.