The macro backdrop is transitionally constructive but fragile. Oil prices have collapsed ~10% over three days on Iran-Oman strait dialogue and a surprise crude inventory build (+4.2M vs +1.8M expected), materially reducing geopolitical risk premium and supporting a mild risk-on lean — though this is offset by Trump's renewed Iran "Economic D-Day" threat keeping tail risk alive. The Bessent bond buyback program ("Bessent Bounce") is compressing yields (US10Y: 4.66%, down from 4.668%), while today's Core PCE (forecast: +0.2% m/m) and Prelim GDP (forecast: 1.5% q/q) at 08:30 ET remain the key intraday catalysts — a hot PCE print above 0.2% would be the primary risk-off trigger ahead of Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday. DXY firming slightly (+0.23% to 99.14) and VIX at 15.4 (calm) suggest markets are in a holding pattern, not a trending environment.