The macro backdrop is mixed-to-cautious heading into a holiday-thinned session (US Independence Day). The DXY is stable at 100.86, gold is bid +1.81% signalling defensive positioning, while Iran-Strait tensions remain unresolved with toll assessments threatened from mid-August — a latent supply-shock risk. The Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow revision from 3.1% to 1.2% injected uncertainty mid-week, though the driver (used car data distortion) diminishes its signal quality. No major data releases scheduled today.
Key risks: Iran Strait escalation re-ignition; thin holiday liquidity amplifying moves; stablecoin supply contraction (USDT -0.49%, USDC -1.1% 7d) suggesting net capital withdrawal from crypto ecosystem.