The macro backdrop enters July with cautious optimism in equities (SPX futures pointing up, Nasdaq on pace for best quarter since Q2 2020), but geopolitical risk remains elevated around Iran-US Strait of Hormuz negotiations — talks appear stalled with Iran denying any scheduled meeting in Doha. The dollar (DXY 101.32, +0.13%) is mildly bid at quarter-turn, consistent with typical position-paring into new month/quarter; gold is soft (-0.98%), and the 10Y yield holds at 4.374%. Two key catalysts today: Fed Chairman Warsh speaks at 09:00 ET (hawkish vs. dovish pivot will be the dominant market mover — a hawkish lean would firm the dollar and pressure risk assets) and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET (forecast 53.8, prior 54.0 — a miss would be mildly risk-negative). Quarter-end/half-year rebalancing flows should be assumed complete; fresh positioning begins today.
Key risks: Warsh dovish surprise → dollar weakness, risk-on impulse; hawkish hold → dollar strengthens, crypto headwind. Iran Strait uncertainty remains a latent volatility catalyst.